Once every five years, the Chinese Communist Party holds the National Congress, where two key decisions are made: who will lead China for the next five years, and what development path these leaders will follow. The recently concluded 19th Congress of the CPC adopted not only these important decisions, but also a number of others.
In addition to electing a new Politburo Standing Committee, the 19th Party Congress re-elected Chinese President Xi Jinping as leader of the CPC and included the ideology named after him, “Xi Jinping Thought,” in the party charter. The congress also approved a program for the country's future development until 2050, which reflected the changes that have occurred in China thanks to economic reforms and the opening of the country.
At the XIII Congress of the CPC in October 1987, the Chinese leadership declared that the “main contradiction” in the country was the contradiction between “the growth of the material and cultural needs of the people and the backwardness of social production.” In other words, the main task was to produce enough food, clothing and books for all Chinese people.
Thirty years later, the main contradiction in China is between "growing demands for an improved quality of life and insufficient and unbalanced economic development." In his address to the 19th Party Congress, Xi Jinping declared that since China as a whole can provide the basic needs of the people, the goal should now be to improve their quality of life.
In this regard, the XIX Congress drew a new road map, based on the “goals of two centenary anniversaries” set at the XVIII Congress. The first centenary goal is to build a “moderately prosperous society” (“xiao-kang”) by 2021, which is the centenary of the founding of the CPC. The point is to create widespread prosperity and virtually eliminate poverty.
The second centenary goal is to transform China into a “fully developed and advanced country” by 2049, the centennial anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic. The plan approved by the congress is to make China a prosperous, civilized, harmonious and modern socialist society with quality public administration. Such a China will become a leading world power, ranking high among advanced economies.
Context
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Time 10/18/2017The 19th Party Congress has already partly marked the path between these two centenary goals: once the first goal is achieved, the country's goal will be to modernize Chinese society by 2035. A modernized China will become a world leader in innovation, a country with a clean environment, a massive middle class, and a greatly reduced urban-rural gap in economic growth, the quality of public services, and living standards.
To achieve these goals, first of all, it is necessary for the Chinese leadership to understand at what stage the country's development process is currently at. In this sense, the recognition by Chinese leaders at the last Party Congress of the fact that China is now - and will be - in the first stage of socialism is positive. This means that China is obliged to set itself the tasks, first of all, of economic development in the hope that economic growth will solve the country’s problems.
In this regard, senior Chinese leaders have promised to continue structural reforms and economic liberalization. This work builds on decisions made in 2013 at the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee that the market should be given a “decisive role” in resource allocation.
As stated at the 19th Party Congress, in order to implement these decisions, China will need to protect private property rights and entrepreneurship. This is important because the private sector provides more than 60% of China's GDP, 50% of the country's taxes, 70% of its technological and product innovation, and 80% of its jobs, yet it consumes less than 40% of its resources.
In terms of liberalization, China is committed to pursuing a policy of further opening markets to trade and foreign investment, while protecting the legitimate rights and interests of foreign investors. As part of this effort, the government is beginning to create new free trade zones and is exploring the possibility of opening free trade ports in some regions.
It is believed that China can achieve the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2035. However, to achieve this, the country will have to maintain labor productivity growth rates of at least 5% per year over the next 15-20 years. This outcome will depend on the successful increase in the rate of urbanization and the acceleration of technological progress.
The key to success will be a country's leadership that is able to effectively adapt to changes in internal and external conditions and cope with the risks accumulated over the past several decades. For example, he will have to deal with the problem of growing income inequality, caused mainly by the huge difference in income between urban and rural areas, although the income difference between urban residents is also growing. In 2014, the per capita income of the richest 5% of households was 53,300 yuan ($8,024), while the income of the poorest 5% of households was only 1,600 yuan.
China's Gini coefficient, the most widely accepted indicator of inequality, rose from 0.238 in 1983 to 0.491 in 2008, according to surveys from the Center for Chinese Household Financial Studies (CHFS). In 2010, it reached a record level of 0.61, and in 2012 it was 0.60 (this is much higher than the official figures - 0.481 and 0.474, respectively). In 2016, the Gini coefficient fell to 0.465, but this figure is still higher than the level observed in large developed countries - 0.24-0.36.
China also faces growing inequality in the distribution of wealth. In 1988 and 1995, the Gini coefficient, a measure of wealth inequality between households, was just 0.34 and 0.4, respectively. But it rose, peaking in 2010 at 0.739. In 2014, the poorest 25% of households owned less than 2% of the country's total wealth, while the richest 1% owned one-third.
If China fails to curb inequality, long-term economic growth will be negatively impacted. However, thanks to a clear development plan and strong leader With its political power to ensure continued reform, China is well positioned to address the challenges it faces and continue its unprecedented economic gains.
However, even if the country achieves its goals in 2050, its problems will not end: the Chinese leadership will have to deal with an aging population. According to the UN World Population Projections revised in 2017, by 2050, 36.5% of China's population will be over 60 years of age. The median age may increase to 49.6 years; this is close to the Japanese level of 53.3 years and higher than in Sweden, Great Britain, the European Union and the United States. This fact underscores how important it is for the Chinese leadership to make the right decisions to put the country on a stable foundation by 2050.
InoSMI materials contain assessments exclusively of foreign media and do not reflect the position of the InoSMI editorial staff.
Secretary General of the Central Committee Communist Party China (CPC) Xi Jinping is a political leader and the main innovator in the PRC. This opinion was voiced on the Chinese TV channel CGTN by Russian orientalist, professor of RUDN University Yuri Tavrovsky. According to him, before Jinping there was no long-term planning in China, but now a development program until 2049 has appeared. The expert believes that Russian authorities It is worth adopting the experience of Chinese colleagues. He compared the development of a state without long-term planning to sailing a ship on the high seas without a lighthouse.
Tavrovsky is convinced that without the CPC in China “there would not have been such successes.”
The 19th Congress of the Communist Party ended in Beijing on October 24 at the Great Hall of the People. Xi Jinping’s idea of socialism with Chinese characteristics of a new era was introduced into the CPC Charter. The Chinese leader delivered a report on the party's activities over the previous five years entitled "Achieving a decisive victory in building a middle-income society, winning great victory socialism with Chinese characteristics in a new era." The congress approved the report. Jinping was put on a par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
"Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era, it builds on and continues to enrich Marxism-Leninism, Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, the Three Represents Theory* and the scientific view of development. It represents the latest achievement in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context and encapsulates the practical experience and collective wisdom of our Party and people. This is an important component of the theory of socialism with Chinese characteristics and a guide to action for all our members and the entire Chinese people as we strive to achieve national rejuvenation. This idea should be adhered to and steadily developed on a long-term basis,” says the text of the Congress resolution.
According to the text of the document, the development period of China until 2050 is divided into two stages: from 2020 to 2035, the CPC Central Committee plans to create a foundation with the help of a “moderately prosperous society”; Over the next 15 years of hard work, based on the results of modernization, Chinese society will build a modern and socialist China. Attention is paid to the environment - China will be built beautiful and green, as well as national security, with reference to the thoughts of Xi Jinping.
“In our party, absolutely each of us must always be on an equal footing with the people, share a common future and remain truly connected with them (the people - author's note). The desire of people to live better lives must always be at the center of our efforts. We must continue to strive resolutely for the great goal of national rejuvenation,” he said.
The Chinese Communist Party was founded in July 1921. Currently, the party includes more than 89 million people, or 6% of the PRC population. The highest governing body is the Congress, which is held once every five years. The 2017 congress was attended by 2,280 delegates selected from members of primary organizations. The congress elects the Central Committee of the CPC, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the highest officials of the country, and changes the Party Charter. One person cannot hold one position for more than two five-year terms.
The Russian Institute of Strategic Studies believes that the 19th Congress of the CPC Central Committee is orienting the country to achieve the Chinese dream, the rejuvenation of the nation or the Zhonghua nation. Head of the Center for Asia and the Asia-Pacific Region, RISI Konstantin KOKAREV explained that the report sets the task of involving the population in governing the state. In all endeavors, the Chinese authorities must rely on the support of the broad masses. At the same time, the leadership of the Communist Party is unshakable and unchangeable.
“Now we see confirmation that these ideas were included in the charter of the Communist Party as the ideas of Xi Jinping,” Kokarev said.
The personification of the idea - for the first time since the time of Mao Zedong - speaks of the authority of Xi Jinping, his “ability to control and organize all the colossal work that remains to be done in the interests of implementing the “Strategic Development Plan...”, Kokarev believes.
“The congress declares the Chinese Communist Party’s intention to continue to pursue a policy of strict governance. This means consistent work to further strengthen party discipline and take decisive measures to suppress possible violations,” he said.
Kokarev spoke about the “Strategic Plan of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era (or New Era).” It includes 14 points, which were voiced in the Jinping report. Next, after the unquestioned leadership of the CPC and the support of the population, are general approaches to reform.
“They include a range of positions. And creativity, scientific approach, and openness, and the so-called “common benefit” in the implementation of certain projects. Particular emphasis is placed on the so-called “green” approach to the implementation of economic projects. In addition, the plan provides for certain movements towards improvement political system And political regime in China. But an integral and obligatory provision in this vein is to adhere to the need for the all-round development of socialism with Chinese characteristics,” Kokarev said.
Socialism with Chinese characteristics of a new era is Jinping’s innovation; the thesis was included in the resolution of the Central Committee and other materials of the Congress as “Xi Jinping Thought.”
*triple representation, the theory of three representations is a theory put forward in 2002 at the 16th Congress of the CPC by the Secretary General of the Central Committee Jiang Zemin. In his vision, the Communist Party should represent the interests of broad sections of the working population: advanced productive forces, Chinese culture, and the fundamental interests of the population. As a result, representatives of medium and large businesses were able to join the Communist Party.
Bring national football to a leading position in the world. This is the goal of the 2050 plan published by the Chinese government. Over the years, national teams should join the ranks of the strongest and China will apply to host the World Cup. In just a few years, the country will have 20 thousand player training centers and 70 thousand new fields. Special significance The football development program focuses on involving children in the game. For this purpose, special school programs and textbooks have been developed.
The plan for the development of football in China consists of three parts. The first is to raise public interest in this team game. It is expected that by 2020 at least 50 million children will become interested in it. To do this, it is necessary to make a powerful leap in infrastructure development. Over the coming years, 70 thousand fields and 20 thousand football centers for training athletes will be built. By 2030, there will be one football pitch for every 10,000 Chinese people, and the men's national football team will be the best in Asia. The goal for the longer term is to attract the world's largest football clubs to competitions in the country by 2050. Children are given special importance in the program. To instill in them a love for the most popular sport in the world, school curriculum Football lessons were introduced, textbooks were developed, and seminars for coaches were planned.
Jiang Jiwei, Deputy Head of the Education Committee of Chaoyang District, Beijing:
"We have developed textbooks for schoolchildren of different ages. These books are different from previous physical education textbooks. Now the emphasis is on football."
3 football training centers will be created in Beijing. In this case, all expenses will be borne by local authorities. It is planned that this year 200 of the best coaches from different parts of the country will come to the capital. Special advanced training courses are organized for them.
Li Lianjiang, Secretary General of the Chinese Schoolboys Football Association:
"We will study together the unified rules of the Chinese Football Association. In addition, we will organize a meeting with invited foreign specialists so that they can introduce us to the best global practices."
But theory without practice is dead. Especially when it comes to such a gambling sport as football. The most important condition Its development in schools was called the organization of regular competitions within the country and strengthening ties with foreign teams.
Jin Yu, Principal of Hunchun School, Jilin Province:
“Usually our schoolchildren participate in large-scale football competitions twice every semester. They love this sport very much. That’s why they don’t stop training after school and play everywhere.”
The Chinese national football team is currently ranked 81st out of 204 in the FIFA rankings. The most important achievement was the fact of selection for the 2002 World Championship. Although the Chinese team lost all matches and did not score a single goal, about 300 million compatriots watched their performances. In the current qualifying tournament for the 2018 World Cup in the Asia zone, the Chinese team took second place in Group C in the second round and advanced to the third stage.
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China's energy development strategy is part of the development strategy of the Chinese economy and is aimed at solving the main task - ensuring the planned parameters of economic development.
The export orientation of production and the creation of a favorable investment climate have allowed the Chinese economy, which has been developing over the past three decades with an average annual GDP growth rate of 9.9%, to surpass the Japanese economy and take second place in the world after the United States. According to preliminary data for 2011, the growth rate of the PRC economy was 10.3%, the volume of GDP was almost 6.1 trillion. dollars (for comparison: GDP growth in Russia amounted to 4.0%, reaching approximately 1.3 trillion dollars). Let's imagine the dynamics of changes in China's GDP in 2004-2011.
The contribution to GDP by sector for the specified period was distributed as follows: the volume of added value of products created in primary production amounted to 4049.7 billion yuan (an increase of 4.3%); in secondary production (manufacturing, construction and energy production) - 18,648.1 billion yuan (an increase of 12.2%); in tertiary production (service sector) - 17,100.5 billion yuan (an increase of 9.5%). That is, as can be seen from the data presented, the greatest growth occurred in the manufacturing, construction and energy sectors, while the smallest growth was typical for the extractive industries. From this we can conclude that China continues to rely on the growth of the manufacturing industry, mainly high-tech.
The growth of China's economy is based on increased investment. Total investment in fixed assets in China increased by 23.8% in 2010 compared to 2009. While the growth rate of investment decreased slightly, its structure improved significantly. Their real growth at the end of the year (after deducting the price component) amounted to 19.5%.
Industrial production in China in 2011 increased by 4.7% compared to 2010. It is interesting that the volume of added value of products of leading industrial enterprises increased for state-owned enterprises and state holdings by 13.7%, for collective enterprises - by 9.4%, for corporatized enterprises - by 16.8%, for enterprises with the participation of foreign capital and SAR capital , Macau (Macao) and Taiwan - by 14.5%. These data confirm the thesis that state-owned enterprises can be no less efficient than private enterprises - the problem is the efficiency of enterprise management, and the form of ownership is secondary. Such rapid growth of the Chinese economy largely determines the development of the fuel and energy complex, as well as the focus and intensity foreign economic relations in this area, to a certain extent regulated by the country’s energy strategy.
The energy strategy determines the growth rate of energy consumption, as well as the structure of the energy balance - the share of production and consumption of various types of energy, as well as the share of energy produced in China and imported. The analysis shows that the strategy includes the development of appropriate targets for three time horizons: a framework strategy for energy development for the period up to 2050; long-term program for the development of the main energy sectors for the period until 2030; detailed program for the 12th five-year plan (2011 - 2015).
The development of an energy development strategy for the period up to 2050 is coordinated by the State Development and Reform Committee (SDRC) of the PRC. The China Energy Research Institution has developed a quantitative model - the Integrated Policy Assessment Model of China (IPAC), directly used in scenario calculations of China's energy development and consisting of three blocks: economic block: contains a model of the Chinese economy, which describes energy-intensive sectors; technological block: includes more than 40 sectors and over 600 technologies, existing and promising, as well as a “road map” for the implementation of these technologies; emission block: allows you to simulate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. China energy strategic forecasting
Forecasting the development of China's energy sector for the period up to 2050 is of a scenario nature and is carried out in accordance with scenarios that take into account the main possible paths for the development of the Chinese economy.
As part of the forecast, four scenarios are considered:
operating (business as usual, BAU). In our opinion, it can be called inertial, since within the framework of this scenario it is assumed that the trends that operated in the pre-crisis period will continue, i.e. high economic growth rates and the absence of real policies to prevent climate change by reducing emissions;
low carbon (high GDP low carbon scenario, HLC). Provides for: high rates of economic growth; implementation of national energy security policy (development of our own energy base, including through exploration and development of oil and gas fields, diversification of imports of primary energy resources); increased conservation activity environment, changes in the economic development regime and consumption regime (from the point of view of rationalization of the consumption structure), widespread use of new technologies. Measures to control greenhouse gas emissions are carried out by China unilaterally; ?
toughened low carbon ((high GDP enhanced low carbon, HELC). The difference from the low carbon regime is that measures to prevent climate change are carried out within the framework of global policy, in cooperation with other countries. In this scenario, China may impose greater restrictions on emissions greenhouse gases, invest more actively in new technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS);
weakened low carbon scenario (LLC). Provides for lower rates of economic growth, which will limit the implementation of climate change mitigation measures.
Let us present the forecast for energy demand in China for the period up to 2050 in accordance with various scenarios. As an example, we will show the dynamics of energy consumption and the structure of the energy balance for the period 2020 - 2050. in accordance with two scenarios - “current” and “tightened low-carbon”. If the use of coal remains almost at the level of 2020, its share in the fuel and energy balance will decrease from 62% to 42% in 2050. At the same time, intensive growth is expected due to oil (an absolute increase of 1.67 times), gas ( an increase of 2.47 times) and especially for nuclear energy (6.6 times). At the same time, the share of energy generated at nuclear power plants will increase by 2050 to almost 9%, with the value of this indicator in 2020 being 1.9%.
Energy development according to a low-carbon scenario involves a reduction in the share of coal and oil in the fuel and energy balance. If the total share of coal and oil in 2020 is approximately 77%, then by 2050 this value will decrease to 57%. Long-term programs for the development of energy sectors until 2030, as well as the framework strategy until 2050, are based mainly on macroeconomic models. Below is an example of a natural gas program developed at the China National Petroleum Corporation Research Center.
Three scenarios described below were used in the forecasting. In Fig. Figure 2 shows the forecast of demand for natural gas in accordance with various scenarios - the reference scenario, with high growth rates of gas consumption (high growth scenario), with low growth rates of gas consumption (low growth scenario).
The General Energy Administration (GEA) of the People's Republic of China has set the task of maintaining oil production in 2011 - 2015. at the level of 200 million tons, for this purpose it was decided to intensify prospecting and exploration work. Coal production will be limited to 3600 million tons. In the electric power industry, the total generating capacity will reach 1440 GW in 2015, 1760 GW in 2015 (at the end of 2011 they amounted to 950 GW). The capacity of wind power plants is planned to be increased to 55 million kW by 2015. Large wind power complexes in the 12th Five-Year Plan will be built in the provinces of Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Xinjiang and Shanghai. Energy production without the use of fossil fuels will account for 11.4% of total primary energy consumption in 2015 and 15% in 2020. In 2010, natural gas (NG) production in China amounted to 94.464 billion m3, imports - 16.716 billion m3, including import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) - 13.093 billion m3, import of pipeline natural gas (PNG) from Turkmenistan - 3.618 billion m3, export of PNG (to Hong Kong and Macau) - 4.074 billion m3, net import - 12.642 billion m3, net consumption - 107.106 billion m3.
The expected level of natural gas production in 2015 is 170 billion m3. Coal bed methane (CBM) production in 2015 should amount to 20 billion m3, another 30 billion m3 will be obtained through coal gasification projects. The volume of natural gas imports will increase to 90 billion m3 by 2015. Thus, the share of imports in meeting the need for natural gas in 2015 will be approximately 25%
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If we assume that China's population is 1.48 billion people, then in 2050 the GDP per capita will be $91 thousand (with a purchasing power of $1 1.25 yuan) or $36 thousand (with a purchasing power of $1 3.15 yuan ).
Chinese economists and demographers have compiled a forecast of population dynamics until 2050 using three options: optimistic, average and pessimistic (table). Each is based on the assumption that the country's population will peak in the 2030s, after which absolute decline will begin.
At the same time, China will not escape the natural process of gradual aging of the population (table).
According to the development plan, products agriculture should increase from 12 billion yuan in 1995 to 120 billion in 2050 (table), increasing annually by 4.3%.
In 2005, 92% of the Chinese population will be under 64 years of age. By 2020, the share of this group will decrease, but will remain at a fairly high level: more than 88%.
Industrial development strategy until 2050. The history of China's industrial development goes back more than 200 years. This period of time can be divided into 3 stages and 6 periods.
By 2050, the incomes of the Chinese population will reach the level of moderately developed industrial countries of the world, moving to the third stage (sixth period).
For 1996-2000, the annual economic growth rate was about 11.2%, and the share of industry in GDP was 45%.
1. For 2001-2010 the average annual growth rate of industry should be 9%, the average per capita income of the population will reach $1120-2100. During this time eastern regions China will move from the third development period ($560-1120 per person) to the fourth ($1120-2100 per person), and some areas of China will move to the fifth period ($2100-3360 per person).
2. For 2011-2030 the growth rate of industrial production will be 7%, and the share of industry in GDP will be 38-40%.
3. For 2031-2050 the growth rate will be 6%, in 2050 the share of industry in GDP will be 33-35%.
An increase in household income will lead to a change in the consumption structure. In table The expected shifts in the consumer structure of the population until 2020 are presented.
In 1995, GDP per capita in China was 4,757 yuan per year, or $568 in nominal terms (1:8.27). Thus, in accordance with these criteria, China has entered the second stage (third period) of economic growth, corresponding to the stage of industrialization.
As follows from this table, over the next 20 years the Chinese population will significantly reduce their food expenses (from 48% of the family budget to 32%). Clothing costs will decrease, but only slightly (by 2 percentage points). But there will be a sharp increase in housing costs (by 10 percentage points). This is due to a noticeable improvement in the provision of housing for the population and an increase in its quality.
China has already achieved considerable success in the field of housing construction. Those who often visit Beijing will agree with us that the Chinese capital changes almost beyond recognition every year. Houses are built around the clock and with high quality. Moreover, Beijing residents complain that the old familiar areas with traditional fanzes are rapidly disappearing, block by block, and in their place skyscrapers are growing like giant mushrooms.
When I visited Beijing for the first time in 2000, when I returned to Moscow in the fall, I caught myself thinking that comparing the two capitals was not in our favor. My Beijing-Moscow train passed by the smoldering television tower in Ostankino, and the newspapers “sucked up” Putin’s phrase about the sunken Kursk submarine.
Beijing seemed like a more modern and prosperous city. And this despite the fact that 80% of the country’s financial capital is now concentrated in the capital of Russia, and no more than 10% in the capital of China. Muscovites traditionally admire Mayor Luzhkov as the architect of the “Moscow miracle.” However, this “miracle” rests on the capital’s shameless exploitation of the rest of Russia. It is high time to admit that the interests of Moscow’s development have come into antagonistic conflict with the development of the country as a whole. Moscow is not interested in the development of the country's regions; moreover, it suppresses this development in every possible way. The parodist M. Zadornov was right, who noted that relations between Moscow and Russia are now approximately the same as between the United States and the rest of the world.